Power sharing accord reportedly to be signed but Guinea remains tense and military split

Republished with permission from Friends of Guinea's blog


Note: Events have been moving quickly in Guinea in recent weeks. You are encouraged to subscribe (follow) our Twitter feed, which is updated several times a day. It can be found at @friendsofguinea on Twitter or http://twitter.com/friendsofguinea

The head of Guinea's military junta Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara was flown from Morocco to Burkina Faso's capital Ouagadougou. Dadis had spent a month in hospital in the North African country after being wounded in an assassination attempt. Reports indicate that Dadis thought he was being flown directly to Conakry and was furious when he realized otherwise. Supporters of the junta leader have demanded he be returned to Guinea.

The International Criminal Court is investigating Dadis' alleged role in the September 28, 2009 massacres in Conakry; the report of a UN inquiry into the killings is available here.

Morocco is not a part of the ICC while Burkina Faso is. Additional, Burkina Faso's leader Blaise Compaore is mediating in the Guinean crisis on behalf of the West African regional grouping ECOWAS. Speculation is that these reasons played a role in Morocco's decision to send Dadis to Ouagadougou.

In the absence of Capt. Dadis, Guinea's acting leader has been the more moderate defense minister Gen. Sekouba Konate. Konate threatened to resign if Dadis did not compromise on terms to a transition to civilian rule.


Splits in the army remain, with supporters of Dadis wanting the charismatic captain to remain in power indefinitely while Gen. Konate and others want to return civilian constitutional order as quickly as possible. A spokesman for Konate said, "The general has made it very clear that he is not interested in staying in power. He made it very clear that he is there to restore discipline within the army and create conditions for a transition.

Meanwhile, Guinea's southern neighbors are worried about the effects of any civil strife on their country. A member of Sierra Leone's parliament warned that if the Republic of Guinea should explode, Sierra Leone would be consumed in less than a week; and if the situation in Guinea is not treated seriously, Sierra Leone's survival and livelihood as a state would be affected.

Today, Radio France Internationale reports that an accord was signed in Burkina Faso, between Dadis and Konate, whereby Dadis would remain in 'convalescence' and elections would be scheduled in six months. The AP has this as well. The BBC added that the accord stated that Dadis would support the transition to civilian rule.

Alliance Guinea reported that Dadis had accepted the principle of a prime minister from the opposition and that Saratou Sara Diallo and long time opposition figure Jean-Marie Dore were the two names it had proposed.

Update: al-Jazeera adds that the accord bans members of the junta as well as any active military serviceman from standing in the elections.

Guinea slaughter was 'premeditated', says NGO

A recent report by the advocacy group Human Rights Watch concluded that massacre by the Guinean 'security' forces which killed over 150 was in fact premeditated.

The country's military dictator Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara had blamed the killings on out-of-control members of the military and Red Berets (presidential guard). The argument seemed plausible as army discipline has long been a problem in the country, especially the mutiny-turned-coup attempt of 2-3 February 1996, which I lived through.

Dadis also had the audacity to partly blame the demonstrators, who'd gathered to peacefully protest his decision to break his promise and run in next January's presidential election.

This remarkable piece of reportage by France 24 (unfortunately available only in French) reveals beyond any shadow of a doubt the messiah complex that has clearly seized Dadis.

HRW found that members of the Presidential Guard carried out a premeditated massacre of at least 150 people on September 28 and brutally raped dozens of women. Red berets shot at opposition supporters until they ran out of bullets, then continued to kill with bayonets and knives.

The Africa director of HRW said, "Security forces surrounded and blockaded the stadium, then stormed in and fired at protesters in cold blood until they ran out of bullets. They carried out grisly gang rapes and murders of women in full sight of the commanders. That’s no accident."

HRW also discounted claims that the massacre was provoked. It obtained video evidence showing that the crowd in Conakry's main stadium had a "peaceful and celebratory atmosphere" with "singing, dancing... and even praying."

The NGO added that it has not seen any evidence that any opposition supporters were armed, and no security officials were wounded by opposition supporters at the stadium, suggesting that there was no legitimate threat posed by the opposition supporters that required the violence that followed.

It added that the violence started as soon as the Presidential Guard savages entered the stadium and "began firing point-blank directly into the massive crowd."

Friends of Guinea statement on the events in Guinea

From: The Friends of Guinea blog

Below is a statement on behalf of the Friends of Guinea board of directors on the recent events in Guinea

As an organization primarily comprising people who've lived in or have some other strong connection to the country, Friends of Guinea is following the unfolding events in the Republic of Guinea with grave concern. We condemn by the massacre of 187 peaceful, unarmed protesters (over 1000 were injured) by the Guinean security forces and are particularly horrified by reports of soldiers publicly raping women.

The country's military leader, Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara, claims he has no control over the elements within the army and even blamed civilian opposition politicians for leading their followers into a confrontation with that army. In reality, the tension has been caused by Guineans' rightful disgust with corrupt leaders who've misruled and oppressed them with complete impunity for decades, last week's slaughter being only the most bloody example.

Guineans were initially optimistic about the new regime, as Capt. Dadis promised to crack down on corruption and drug trafficking. He also promised not to stand in next January's presidential elections. It was his reneging on that promise that led to the escalation of tension in the country. The brutal suppression, by men in uniform acting in his name, of peaceful protests is only making things worse.

If we are to take him at his word, that he's not in control of the military, then the military ruler must make re-establishing that control his number one task, not running a political campaign. We are heartened that Capt. Dadis says he agrees that an international inquiry into the massacre is merited, but that is not enough. We call on him to keep his initial promise to not run in the upcoming presidential elections and to hand over power to a democratically-elected civilian government. Imposing control over the security forces, implementing the rule of law and establishing democracy would be three of the most important things he could do for Guineans.

The September 28th killings occurred on the 50th anniversary of Guinea's historic rejection of French colonialism. In the lead up to that vote, Guinean leader Sékou Touré said that his countrymen would choose "poverty in liberty over prosperity in slavery." Guineans have seen plenty of poverty but precious little liberty. They are clearly showing how fed up they are with corrupt, autocratic regimes. After half a century, it's long past time they are allowed a leader who reflects their will. We call on Capt. Dadis to allow that to happen.

Updates on the situation in Guinea following the 28 September massacre

Reprinted with permission from Friends of Guinea blog here and here.


Guinéenews reports that the Upper Guinea city of Siguiri and Forest region city of Kissidougou were both paralyzed by general strikes today [Monday].

Earlier Monday morning, protesters in Siguiri took to the streets demanding public lighting of their city. The protests prevented activities in the center of town. Protesters objected to the local authorities failure to keep its promise in the matter.

In Kissidougou, transport and commercial activities were halted when youth called for action to protest both the candidacy of the military leader Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara in January's presidential elections and the September 28 massacre. The protesters were dissuaded against actually taking to the streets, for fear of violence, however the population stayed home instead, shutting down the city.

Meanwhile, Burkina Faso's head of state Blaise Compaoré arrived in Conakry to begin ECOWAS sponsored mediation.

***

Events are moving so quickly in Guinea that it's hard to keep up, but below are links to various news articles about and international reaction to the evolving situation in the country following the September 28 massacre that is now believed to have killed 187 people.

-Foreign gunmen helped Guinea crackdown (Reuters)

-Scuffles break out at new Guinea anti-junta demo (AFP)

-Thousands identify Guinea bodies (BBC)

-International inquiry needed into violence by Guinea security forces(Amnesty International)

-Guinean junta leader calls for UN investigation (Radio Netherlands)

-UN Security Council condemns Guinea repression, deaths (DPA)

-CNDD junta condemns September 28 deaths (Guinéenews - in French)

-Guinea junta calls for national unity government (Reuters)

-Guinea opposition rejects unity government after bloodbath (DPA)

-Guinean refugees heading toward Mali (Maliweb - in French)

-Guinean soldiers accused of raping women with rifle butts (AP)

-Civil society reactions to junta leader’s declarations (MISNA)

-West African regional grouping names Burkina Faso leader as facilitator (AFP)

-[Video] Guinean soldiers firing on crowd (UK Guardian) (WARNING: contains graphic images)

-[Audio] Guinea violence (BBC World Service Analysis program)

-Guinea leader vows to hold election despite bloody protest (The Day)

-France's [foreign minister Bernard] Kouchner Urges International Intervention in Guinea (Bloomberg)

-Guinea people opposed to peacekeepers, claims junta chief (AFP)

-Guinea leader claims 'no responsibility' in bloodbath (AFP)

-Dadis admits, "To say that I control this army would be demagogy." (France 24)

87 (120+?) massacred after Guinean insecurity thugs attack anti-dictator demonstrators

Reprinted with permission from Friends of Guinea blog

Initial optimism about the new regime has faded dramatically ever since junta leader Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara reneged on a promise to not participate in presidential elections scheduled for January 31.

A new political party, the Rally for the Defense of the Republic, was formed to back the military leader's candidacy. After Dadis, who unilaterally declared himself president following the death of Gen. Lansana Conté, broke his pledge not to run for the chief executive, the African Union imposed sanctions on Guinea.

Anti-Dadis has been rising ever since the coup leader's electoral ambitions became clear. He was met by huge protests when he visited Labé, the country's second largest city. And when the opposition tried to organize a rally against the regime, the junta banned it.

When the demonstration proceeded anyway, the "security" forces fired live ammunition at the crowd, reportedly killing dozens of demonstrators.

"It's butchery! There are dozens of dead," a Conakry doctor told the French news agency AFP.

Some media outlets reporting the death total as high as 87.

Another Conakry doctor told the IRIN news agency that there were 'hundreds' of injuries from bullets and beatings.

The massacre occurred on the 51st anniversary of the referendum in which Guineans voted for independence from France.

Update: Al-Jazeera reports that opposition leader and former prime minister Cellou Dalien Diallo and several other politicians were thrown in jail. A source indicated to me that Diallo was also shot during the protests. New reports suggest the death toll now exceeds 120.

Guinean army chief calls for poll delay but is rebuffed by Dadis

Reprinted from Friends of Guinea blog with permission

Earlier this week, Guinea's army chief made waves by claiming that the country was not ready for elections in 2009 and that they should be delayed until next year.

However, the head of state, Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara, responded by insisting that elections would take place this year as scheduled.

When the German ambassador pressed Dadis if he would contest presidential elections if they were postponed until 2010, the junta leader angrily lashed out at the envoy. Camara promised not to stand in the 2009 elections, but some observers wonder if the promise precluded a candidacy if the polls were delayed until next year.

An Afrik.com correspondent shared his thoughts on a visit to the head of state's lounge.

Source: here

Guinean junta summons industry leaders, is warned by Human Rights Watch

From: Friends of Guinea blog

Note: Reprinted with permission.

Guinea's military junta summoned industry leaders earlier this week, including representatives of the country's lucrative and controversial mining sector, before a commission investigating corruption.

Meanwhile, the non-governmental organization Human Rights Watch called on the junta to hold members of the former regime accountable for human rights' abuses.

"Guinea stands at an historic crossroads," said Corinne Dufka, senior West Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch. "Improving the chronic human rights problems that have undermined the civil, political, social, and economic rights of the Guinean population for decades must be a top priority of the current government."
Since 2006, Human Rights Watch has done extensive research into patterns of human rights abuses against ordinary Guineans, including torture, extrajudicial executions, widespread extortion, and the brutal repression of street protests. The evidence in the vast majority of these cases shows that the abuses have been committed by members of the security forces, but the government has rarely investigated these cases, much less brought those responsible to justice. This failure to act, coupled with a weak judiciary, characterized by a lack of independence from the executive branch, inadequate resources, and corruption, has left ordinary Guineans with scant hope for redress.

In 2007, then-head of state Lansana Conté agreed to set up a commission to investigate extrajudicial killings and other abuses related to the repression of that year's general strike. However, the commission never really started its work. In an interview with Radio France Internationale, Dufka called on Dadis to order the commission to start its work and cooperate with it.

Groundhog Day in Guinea

A long-ailing dictator finally dies. A corrupt, repressive regime heading a sclerotic state is overthrown, replaced by a military junta of young officers which tears up the constitution, promises to crack down on graft and improve the country's economic state and launches a purge of high ranking officials. 1984 in Guinea is repeating itself.

The death of the country's strongman, Gen. Lansana Conté, has cast confusion into a country that once billed itself an island of stability in a turblent West African sea. Conté himself came to power in a 1984 military coup under nearly identical circumstances as today. Less than a day after his death, a group of young soldiers took power and formed a ruling junta called the National Committee for Democracy and Development (known by its French-acronym CNDD).

As expected, the seizure of power was widely condemned by the outside world, including the US, European Union, African Union and the West African regional body ECOWAS. This is understandable, as these entities tend to have a pro forma opposition to military coups d'Etat.

What's notable is how the coup was generally welcomed by Guineans themselves. Pres. Abdoulaye Wade of neighboring Senegal was one of the few foreign leaders to urge recognition of the junta. The civilian opposition parties in Guinea were also notable in their failure to condemn the putsch.

The main difference is that outside countries and organization hold general principles like military intervention is always bad, civilian rule is always good, constitutionalism and elections are the be all and end all. These are good principles in theory and perhaps the only principles these organizations can actually enunciate but in practice, things are more nuanced.

The main reason Guineans themselves supported this military intervention against "constitutionalism" is because constitutionalism in Guinea was a fraud. The Guinean loi fondamentale was basically ignored by Conté and the cabal around him, including his minions in the judiciary. The constitution Conté himself (or his loyalists) wrote decreed that the head of state be a civilian. Yet Conté remained an active military general for nearly all of his reign. The constitution allowed the Supreme Court to declare a 'vacancy in power' should the president die or become seriously ill and that the National Assembly president become acting head of state. Despite Conté being a virtual vegetable for years, such a vacancy was never declared and the state remained paralyzed. In fact, the current National Assembly's mandate officially ended in 2006 as legislative elections have been repeatedly postponed. So it's debatable whether the normal constitutional process would even be legal in this case.

In suspending the constitution, the CNDD merely formalized what had been the reality of the past several years: the Guinean constitution had long ceased to be relevant to the country's politics.

And it's worth asking why the Conté regime's massive human rights abuses, abuses of power, corruption, arbitrary arrests and the like did not garner a fraction of the international condemnation received by the soldiers who put an end to this regime.

In reality, the military intervention was not a coup against an irrelevant constitution. It was a coup against an irredeemably corrupt system. The mafia around Conté has had a stranglehold on the economy for years. Had the "constitutional" transition taken place, this cabal would've retained its suffocating control on the floundering economy. People who had a vested interest in the system were never going to permit changes. They'd proven this in the way several of Conté's former prime ministers found their much needed ideas for reform strangled by those vested interests. A "constitutional" transition would've permitted the continuation of the dysfunctional, sclerotic institutions and faux democracy that had never been given a chance to work normally.

Conté had been a vegetable for years. It's an open secret that his cabal has been de facto running the country for a long time. The "constitutional process" would have both legitimized and perpetuated this disastrous state of affairs.

In principle, I don't like appear to be endorsing military coups. But when legality has long ceased to be part of the equation, what's the difference? Who cares whether the men illegally holding power wear khaki or not?

The main concern about the coup is talk of a split within the armed forces. High-ranking military officials opposed the coup and supported the "constitutional" continuation of the system from which many of them benefited. Junior officers, feeling they got the short end of the stick, led the coup. Guinea's new head of state, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, has publicly admitted divisions within the armed forces and urged dissident officers to remain calm, though this appeal came a few days after the junta arrested several top generals.

The CNDD's reign may not ultimately lead to democracy and good governance. But a continuation of the old system was guaranteed to prevent those things. A short-lived military junta is not sure to bring progress, but regime change is the only chance for such progress to have the slightest hope of getting enough oxygen to thrive.

It's worth remembering that the CMRN junta led by Conté from 1984-93 brought real improvements to the Guinean economic and political climate before they became too comfortable with power and fell prey to Lord Acton's Dictum.

The Guinean opposition is calcified and opposition parties are based largely on the cult of personality around their party leader. Nearly all older opposition parties have the same leader they did when pseudo-democracy was declared in the early 90s. Nearly all of the newer opposition parties formed since have been created by a dissident from an existing party who got pissed off and formed a party around their own self. Opposition parties are mostly ethnically-based and have no real ideological agendas... other than professing their belief in democracy (because that's what all parties say when in opposition).

But in fairness, the repression waged by Conté's regime really prevented opposition parties from having the political space to operate normally. Opposition party members were systematically harassed, subjected to arbitrary arrest and the like.

Neither was civil society really given much space to operate, except when they finally forced themselves onto the scene during the general strike of early 2007. And the general strike might prove to be one of the most significant events in Guinean history. It was the first civilian event that truly made the dictatorial Conté regime tremble with fear, because it was the first uprising that was truly popular in origin. It was the second time in Guinea's history that a grass roots uprising made a dictatorial regime blink, the 1977 market women's revolt being the first.

With the former opposition political parties impotent and incoherent, an organized and assertive civil society might be the difference between a military junta that keeps its promise to cede power via democratic elections this year and one that finds a million excuses to hang on to power ad infinitum.