Groundhog Day in Guinea

A long-ailing dictator finally dies. A corrupt, repressive regime heading a sclerotic state is overthrown, replaced by a military junta of young officers which tears up the constitution, promises to crack down on graft and improve the country's economic state and launches a purge of high ranking officials. 1984 in Guinea is repeating itself.

The death of the country's strongman, Gen. Lansana Conté, has cast confusion into a country that once billed itself an island of stability in a turblent West African sea. Conté himself came to power in a 1984 military coup under nearly identical circumstances as today. Less than a day after his death, a group of young soldiers took power and formed a ruling junta called the National Committee for Democracy and Development (known by its French-acronym CNDD).

As expected, the seizure of power was widely condemned by the outside world, including the US, European Union, African Union and the West African regional body ECOWAS. This is understandable, as these entities tend to have a pro forma opposition to military coups d'Etat.

What's notable is how the coup was generally welcomed by Guineans themselves. Pres. Abdoulaye Wade of neighboring Senegal was one of the few foreign leaders to urge recognition of the junta. The civilian opposition parties in Guinea were also notable in their failure to condemn the putsch.

The main difference is that outside countries and organization hold general principles like military intervention is always bad, civilian rule is always good, constitutionalism and elections are the be all and end all. These are good principles in theory and perhaps the only principles these organizations can actually enunciate but in practice, things are more nuanced.

The main reason Guineans themselves supported this military intervention against "constitutionalism" is because constitutionalism in Guinea was a fraud. The Guinean loi fondamentale was basically ignored by Conté and the cabal around him, including his minions in the judiciary. The constitution Conté himself (or his loyalists) wrote decreed that the head of state be a civilian. Yet Conté remained an active military general for nearly all of his reign. The constitution allowed the Supreme Court to declare a 'vacancy in power' should the president die or become seriously ill and that the National Assembly president become acting head of state. Despite Conté being a virtual vegetable for years, such a vacancy was never declared and the state remained paralyzed. In fact, the current National Assembly's mandate officially ended in 2006 as legislative elections have been repeatedly postponed. So it's debatable whether the normal constitutional process would even be legal in this case.

In suspending the constitution, the CNDD merely formalized what had been the reality of the past several years: the Guinean constitution had long ceased to be relevant to the country's politics.

And it's worth asking why the Conté regime's massive human rights abuses, abuses of power, corruption, arbitrary arrests and the like did not garner a fraction of the international condemnation received by the soldiers who put an end to this regime.

In reality, the military intervention was not a coup against an irrelevant constitution. It was a coup against an irredeemably corrupt system. The mafia around Conté has had a stranglehold on the economy for years. Had the "constitutional" transition taken place, this cabal would've retained its suffocating control on the floundering economy. People who had a vested interest in the system were never going to permit changes. They'd proven this in the way several of Conté's former prime ministers found their much needed ideas for reform strangled by those vested interests. A "constitutional" transition would've permitted the continuation of the dysfunctional, sclerotic institutions and faux democracy that had never been given a chance to work normally.

Conté had been a vegetable for years. It's an open secret that his cabal has been de facto running the country for a long time. The "constitutional process" would have both legitimized and perpetuated this disastrous state of affairs.

In principle, I don't like appear to be endorsing military coups. But when legality has long ceased to be part of the equation, what's the difference? Who cares whether the men illegally holding power wear khaki or not?

The main concern about the coup is talk of a split within the armed forces. High-ranking military officials opposed the coup and supported the "constitutional" continuation of the system from which many of them benefited. Junior officers, feeling they got the short end of the stick, led the coup. Guinea's new head of state, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara, has publicly admitted divisions within the armed forces and urged dissident officers to remain calm, though this appeal came a few days after the junta arrested several top generals.

The CNDD's reign may not ultimately lead to democracy and good governance. But a continuation of the old system was guaranteed to prevent those things. A short-lived military junta is not sure to bring progress, but regime change is the only chance for such progress to have the slightest hope of getting enough oxygen to thrive.

It's worth remembering that the CMRN junta led by Conté from 1984-93 brought real improvements to the Guinean economic and political climate before they became too comfortable with power and fell prey to Lord Acton's Dictum.

The Guinean opposition is calcified and opposition parties are based largely on the cult of personality around their party leader. Nearly all older opposition parties have the same leader they did when pseudo-democracy was declared in the early 90s. Nearly all of the newer opposition parties formed since have been created by a dissident from an existing party who got pissed off and formed a party around their own self. Opposition parties are mostly ethnically-based and have no real ideological agendas... other than professing their belief in democracy (because that's what all parties say when in opposition).

But in fairness, the repression waged by Conté's regime really prevented opposition parties from having the political space to operate normally. Opposition party members were systematically harassed, subjected to arbitrary arrest and the like.

Neither was civil society really given much space to operate, except when they finally forced themselves onto the scene during the general strike of early 2007. And the general strike might prove to be one of the most significant events in Guinean history. It was the first civilian event that truly made the dictatorial Conté regime tremble with fear, because it was the first uprising that was truly popular in origin. It was the second time in Guinea's history that a grass roots uprising made a dictatorial regime blink, the 1977 market women's revolt being the first.

With the former opposition political parties impotent and incoherent, an organized and assertive civil society might be the difference between a military junta that keeps its promise to cede power via democratic elections this year and one that finds a million excuses to hang on to power ad infinitum.

Guinean strongman dies; military reportedly seizes power

Friends of Guinea blog reports on the death of Guinean dictator Lansana Conté and the apparent military coup that has followed. Reprinted with permission.

The BBC is reporting that there has been an army coup in Guinea following the death yesterday of the head of state Gen. Lansana Conté. An army officer told state radio that the constitution had been suspended, the government dissolved and ministers rounded up 'to guarantee their security.'

The prime minister rejected the coup and insisted that the government 'continues to function as it should.' The National Assembly president, who constitutionally, would become acting president of the Republic, said he did not think the military was behind the attempted rebellion.

Shortly after the prime minister's remarks, the Associated Press reported a phalanx of tanks and armed soldiers heading toward the head of government's office.

The BBC notes that residents of Conakry are nervous about the transition of power, especially in the face of longstanding reports of ethnic divisions within the army.

Guinean strongman sacks peace agreement prime minister

Republished from Friends of Guinea blog... with permission.

Guinean head of state Gen. Lansana Conté has fired Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté and replaced him with Ahmed Tidiane Souaré, a former minister of mines and education and ally of the general.

The sacking of Kouyaté is noteworthy because the former diplomat was named head of government in order to bring an end to the 2007 general strike.

However, the BBC's correspondent in Conakry told Network Africa that one of the trade unions' leaders said the sacking of Kouyaté was not her problem and that labor would focus on what sort of people the new prime minister brought into the cabinet.

Public reaction to Kouyaté's sacking was generally muted, although protesters in his hometown of Kankan marched and burned tires.

Guinéenews reports that in Souaré's first public declaration, the new head of government would consult with Conté to form a government that would 'avoid exclusion.'

Kouyaté is the third prime minister in the last several years to be sacked or resign after a relatively brief time due to what many believe is the refusal of the clan surrounding Conté to cede any power to a reformist leader.

Guinean general strike to resume following executive power grab

Originally posted in Friends of Guinea's blog. Republished with permission.

There has been rioting in Guinea after the head of state Gen. Lansana Conté fired Communications Minister Justin Morel Jr.

Voice of America reported that Conté's New Years Day message attacked the government of Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté, calling it a "disappointment."

However an analyst for the International Crisis group disagreed, saying that "[t]here has been some clear improvement in social services, water, electricity, and all these issues were really the core reason of the general strike and the massive demonstrations last year.".

Morel responded by telling state television that the words attributed to Conté were penned by extremists "nostalgic for a past that no longer exists."

Kouyaté and his cabinet were appointed after an agreement struck last year between Conté and labor unions in order to end a debilitating general strike.

Many inside Guinea are outraged by Morel's sacking by presidential decree, arguing that he was named minister via consensus and could only be sacked via the same method.

This is seen as only the latest move by the presidency to undermine Prime Minister Kouyaté's authority.

Last month, Conte signed a decree giving more control within the government to one of his closest allies, the presidency secretary-general, Sam Mamadi Soumah.

Guinéenews reported that Kouyaté's government threatened to resign if Conté's decree was not reversed.

Outraged by what it sees as Conté's betrayal of last year's deal and undermining of Kouyaté's authority, unions have called for a resumption of the nationwide general strike, starting on January 10.

"We are going to stage an unlimited general strike to force the government to respect these agreements," the secretary-general of the National Confederation of Guinean Workers (CNTG), Rabiatou Serah Diallo, told a news conference.
Earlier a union leader told Reuters: "This is a serious violation of the agreement which ended last year's crisis."

Officially, union leaders did not end last year's general strike following the power-sharing deal, but only suspended it.

Guinean insecurity forces a 'permanent menace' to the people

Amnesty International issued a report on the rampaging forces of disorder that caused mass bloodshed during the general strike in Guinea earlier this year.

Amnesty declared unambiguously that the Guinean insecurity forces represented 'a permanent menace for the population.'

The human rights' organization reported that authorities resort to the use of force against the population each time that the government feels threatened. The fact that no one has been held accountable shows clearly that the authorities, up to the highest level, have ignored these dealings and even encouraged them.

AI demanded that the government prevent the security forces from using excessive force against unarmed civilians and give material and juridical reparations the the families of the over 130 people killed and over 1500 wounded during the violent repression of mostly peaceful marches that occured in Guinea in January and February 2007.

It's long been an open secret in Guinea that the soldiers, gendarmes and particularly the presidential guard (red berets) are a law unto themselves. They are never held accountable for anything... unless of course they challenge the authority of head of state Lansana Conté and his cabal.

It is doubtful that the new consensus prime minister, Lansana Kouyaté, will have enough real power to hold these people to account. It's questionable whether even Gen. Conté has enough real authority to do so... even if he actually wanted to.


Update: The excellent Mafé Tiga blog opines on the recent appointment of new préfets and governors by Guinean Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté.

Le foot, c'est moi!

This weekend, Guinea's national soccer team stunned Algeria by 2 goals to 0 in an African Nations Cup qualifier in Algiers. Guinea is virtually unbeatable in competitive matches at home, but their form has always been shaky away, particularly in North Africa.

The result was all the more surprising because, only a few days earlier, #1 goalkeeper Kémoko Camara quit the Syli national after being accused of exagerrating an injury. This led national team boss Robert Nouzaret to declare that the Guineans had 'no chance' against Algeria.

After the shock win, which put the Syli on top of their qualifying group, residents of the capital Conakry descended into the streets to celebrate. Ailing head of state Gen. Lansana Conté seized the opportunity to leave for a bit his hermetic existence to 'bathe in the crowd,' as Guinéenews elegantly put it.

Interesting that Gen 'Man of the People' Conté never decided to 'bathe in the crowd' during the contentious general strike earlier this year during which over 100 people were gunned down by insecurity forces.