This can't be good...

You have to wonder about the future of the Idriss Déby regime. The Chadian strongman recently dissolved his presidential guard following a wave of desertions. More dangerously, the deserters have reportedly regrouped in the unstable eastern part of the country, where thousands of refugees from Darfur have relocated.

The deserters, calling themselves the Platform for Change, National Unity and Democracy, have rejected talks with government official, according to the IRIN news service. The Chadian opposition estimates that the group of deserters number some 600 troops.

"The decision to dissolve the [Republican Guard] hints at panic within the regime and suggests that Deby - a military strategist of some merit - has moved beyond damage limitation strategies into full-blown regime survival mode," said Chris Melville of the London-based research group Global Insight.

The Republican Guard is usually the most important part of a head of state's security detail; in many countries, Guardsmen swear loyalty not to the republic, but personal loyalty to the leader. That Déby no longer feels safe with his own security detail does not auger well for the future of his regime.